by Pa Rock
Citizen Journalist
A few of the Democratic presidential candidates will meet in Los Angeles tonight for the sixth debate out of twelve that are being planned by the national party. The first debate in the series was held last June 26th and 27th in Miami, Florida, with a field of twenty-two participants who were divided into two groups. Since that time the party has used a complicated system of unique donors and poll results to winnow the field down to a manageable number. This time seven will be participating.
Six more debates are planned, and if history is any indicator, the field for those events is unlikely to expand.
In addition to shrinking the number of candidates, the arbitrary criteria established by the party hierarchy for debate qualification has also served to make the field far less diverse than it was just a few months ago. Tonight's forum will feature an oriental - businessman and entrepreneur Andrew Yang, two women - Senators Elizabeth Warren and Amy Klobuchar, one gay male - South Bend Mayor Pete Buttigieg, and three standard-issue white males: former Vice President Joe Biden, Senator Bernie Sanders, and billionaire businessman Tom Steyer.
All of the candidates on stage except for Mr. Yang will be caucasian.
Gone from the line-up are women of color, men of color, and Hispanic Americans. Cory Booker and Julian Castro still consider themselves to be contenders, but, after being pushed off of the debate stage, they are more apt to be regarded as footnotes rather than headlines. The group left on stage, if they were to remain silent, could be confused with a meeting of some Midwestern Republican state committee. They are tighter and whiter than the garments in Mike Pence's underwear drawer.
It will be interesting to see where the Democratic Party goes from here. The superdelegate class, a group that fifty years ago would have been known as the "party bosses," have an obvious clear preference for Joe Biden, but the front runner-apparent has so far run a lackluster campaign that has been marked by gaffes and often seems to drift into a fog. At seventy-seven Biden can be expected not to be the fastest horse on the track, though his handlers would prefer it if he could at least stay headed in the right direction.
Bernie Sanders, who at seventy-eight, is even older than Biden, is clearer-headed and more focused, but many of those in positions of power within the party don't like Bernie's message. And last month Sanders suffered a heart attack while on the campaign trail, something his staff tried (unsuccessfully) to keep from the press and the public.
Elizabeth Warren, at seventy, is comfortably younger that Biden and Sanders, but those running the party also are not happy with her message. While Warren and Bernie - and Yang - tout left wing proposals geared to benefit working people, the Democratic Party leaders are seeking someone who will promote ideas that they regard as more mainstream - ideas critics argue which more closely resemble Republican plans and programs.
Pete Buttigieg, the 37-year-old gay mayor of South Bend, Indiana, is the final member of what the press is promoting as the "top tier" of candidates. He has been pulling to the center on issues and making news by needling the signature programs of Warren and Sanders. Mayor Pete's Achilles heel is that he can't seem to make inroads among black voters - some of whom have traditionally been hostile to the notion of equal rights for gays.
The Democratic Party convention will seat a large block of delegates who will not have to compete for their seats at the convention. These people are called "superdelegates" and get to be a part of the convention based on positions they already hold within the party. Most are elected officials like US senators, congressmen, and governors. The party heard complaints from grassroots activists within its organization that the superdelegates had too much power for those who did not earn their seats through the presidential nominating process - and it reacted by passing a measure which said the superdelegates could not vote on the first ballot at the convention, but if the process went more than one ballot, they could swoop in and make their preferences felt.
Party conventions for both parties have traditionally for many decades managed to settle on a candidate on the first ballot. This time, however, without a clear frontrunner, that may not happen. If it goes to a second ballot, the superdelegates will come charging in and try to "save' the party from anyone they see as "extreme."
If they can't have Joe, they might possibly settle on Amy - or even move to resurrect Hillary. Billionaire Tom Steyer might have an outside shot (he has already spent $47 million of mostly his own money on advertising) - and bigger billionaire Mike Bloomberg (a former Republican) could also elbow his way across the finish line. Bloomberg has spent $117 million of his own money on advertising just within the last month.
But there is one thing that the party bosses - superdelegates - will not do. They will not put anyone with progressive notions at the top of the ticket. If it goes to a second ballot, Bernie, Warren, and Andrew Yang can all kiss their chances goodbye.
And then the party will be free to focus on trying to look more like Trump's Amerika.
Citizen Journalist
A few of the Democratic presidential candidates will meet in Los Angeles tonight for the sixth debate out of twelve that are being planned by the national party. The first debate in the series was held last June 26th and 27th in Miami, Florida, with a field of twenty-two participants who were divided into two groups. Since that time the party has used a complicated system of unique donors and poll results to winnow the field down to a manageable number. This time seven will be participating.
Six more debates are planned, and if history is any indicator, the field for those events is unlikely to expand.
In addition to shrinking the number of candidates, the arbitrary criteria established by the party hierarchy for debate qualification has also served to make the field far less diverse than it was just a few months ago. Tonight's forum will feature an oriental - businessman and entrepreneur Andrew Yang, two women - Senators Elizabeth Warren and Amy Klobuchar, one gay male - South Bend Mayor Pete Buttigieg, and three standard-issue white males: former Vice President Joe Biden, Senator Bernie Sanders, and billionaire businessman Tom Steyer.
All of the candidates on stage except for Mr. Yang will be caucasian.
Gone from the line-up are women of color, men of color, and Hispanic Americans. Cory Booker and Julian Castro still consider themselves to be contenders, but, after being pushed off of the debate stage, they are more apt to be regarded as footnotes rather than headlines. The group left on stage, if they were to remain silent, could be confused with a meeting of some Midwestern Republican state committee. They are tighter and whiter than the garments in Mike Pence's underwear drawer.
It will be interesting to see where the Democratic Party goes from here. The superdelegate class, a group that fifty years ago would have been known as the "party bosses," have an obvious clear preference for Joe Biden, but the front runner-apparent has so far run a lackluster campaign that has been marked by gaffes and often seems to drift into a fog. At seventy-seven Biden can be expected not to be the fastest horse on the track, though his handlers would prefer it if he could at least stay headed in the right direction.
Bernie Sanders, who at seventy-eight, is even older than Biden, is clearer-headed and more focused, but many of those in positions of power within the party don't like Bernie's message. And last month Sanders suffered a heart attack while on the campaign trail, something his staff tried (unsuccessfully) to keep from the press and the public.
Elizabeth Warren, at seventy, is comfortably younger that Biden and Sanders, but those running the party also are not happy with her message. While Warren and Bernie - and Yang - tout left wing proposals geared to benefit working people, the Democratic Party leaders are seeking someone who will promote ideas that they regard as more mainstream - ideas critics argue which more closely resemble Republican plans and programs.
Pete Buttigieg, the 37-year-old gay mayor of South Bend, Indiana, is the final member of what the press is promoting as the "top tier" of candidates. He has been pulling to the center on issues and making news by needling the signature programs of Warren and Sanders. Mayor Pete's Achilles heel is that he can't seem to make inroads among black voters - some of whom have traditionally been hostile to the notion of equal rights for gays.
The Democratic Party convention will seat a large block of delegates who will not have to compete for their seats at the convention. These people are called "superdelegates" and get to be a part of the convention based on positions they already hold within the party. Most are elected officials like US senators, congressmen, and governors. The party heard complaints from grassroots activists within its organization that the superdelegates had too much power for those who did not earn their seats through the presidential nominating process - and it reacted by passing a measure which said the superdelegates could not vote on the first ballot at the convention, but if the process went more than one ballot, they could swoop in and make their preferences felt.
Party conventions for both parties have traditionally for many decades managed to settle on a candidate on the first ballot. This time, however, without a clear frontrunner, that may not happen. If it goes to a second ballot, the superdelegates will come charging in and try to "save' the party from anyone they see as "extreme."
If they can't have Joe, they might possibly settle on Amy - or even move to resurrect Hillary. Billionaire Tom Steyer might have an outside shot (he has already spent $47 million of mostly his own money on advertising) - and bigger billionaire Mike Bloomberg (a former Republican) could also elbow his way across the finish line. Bloomberg has spent $117 million of his own money on advertising just within the last month.
But there is one thing that the party bosses - superdelegates - will not do. They will not put anyone with progressive notions at the top of the ticket. If it goes to a second ballot, Bernie, Warren, and Andrew Yang can all kiss their chances goodbye.
And then the party will be free to focus on trying to look more like Trump's Amerika.
1 comment:
The early leader in the Iowa Democratic Caucus has not always been triumph in that race. The notable exception was the 1992 "Favorite Son" candidacy of Iowa's Senator Tom Harkin. The lesson to be taken from that year is that although Paul Tsongas got 4.27% of the vote to Bill Clinton's 2.54% it was Clinton who took 7 delegates while Tsongas went home empty. Knowing how to play the game is crucial in Iowa.
In 2000 Bill Bradley earned the endorsement of the Des Moines Register and polling showed him closing the 9% gap he had with Al Gore just a week before the caucuses; 40% Bradley to 49% Gore. Those polls were about as accurate as Uncle Dudler's rehumatism was when predicting rain. Gore took 29 delegates with 63.42% of the vote to Bradley's 18 delegates and 34.88% of the vote.
2004 was a donnybrook with Missouri's Dick Gephardt and Vermont's Howard Dean going toe to toe. Illinois Senator Carol Moseley Braun withdrew in mid January and cast her support behind Dean. Rising above the racket was John Kerry who went on to win a plurality decision with 37.6% of the vote. The Gephardt Dean melee revived Kerry's candidacy once thought to be DOA in Iowa. Ironically Republicans appear to have watched Iowa closely and developed the Swift Boat strategy to sink Kerry in the general election.
In January 2007 Barack Obama was polling at 15% to Hillary Clinton's 22%. A year later both had improved with Hillary ahead, but just barely, with a couple point lead over Obama. Each had less than 30% of the vote. Obama bested Clinton 37.6% to 29.4%. For the second consecutive caucus John Edwards came in second in the 2008 Iowa Democratic Caucus.
Front runner lose in Iowa. External factors upset the best laid plan of seasoned political professionals. The importance of organization to get Iowa Democrats to the caucus to support a particular candidate cannot be underestimated.
This is likely the last year for Iowa to kickoff the Presidential campaign to garner a winning combination of delegates for the Democratic Convention. The state has a pronounced lack of diversity and frankly gets more attention than its share of delegates deserves. Texas, Florida, New York, and California do not earn the air time Iowa receives. A combination of smaller states with diverse populations may open the process the next time around.
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