If You Want Your Opinion to Matter, Go Vote!

 

by Pa Rock

Citizen Journalist

As an undergraduate college student in the 1960's, I majored in history and had a minor in political science.  The word "science" in my minor field of study would indicate that there is some rhyme and reason to the way politics function in America, and, if that is so, having the right inputs should render the activity of politics to be somewhat predictable.

The most common method for collecting those inputs is through polling - or going out and asking people what they feel or think about certain issues and candidates.

One of the classes that I took while studying the science of politics was a course in polling.  In that class, which was largely learning by doing, we created and tested our own polling questions, learned how to come up with random samples of voters, and how to present ourselves and ask those questions in as neutral a manner as possible.   After all of that was mastered, we took to the streets, found our random voters, and conducted the survey.

It was an exceptional learning experience and through it I developed a confidence in good polling that has lasted through the ensuing decades.  (Not all polling, of course, is good.  Some polls are designed to yield certain results instead of actually trying to determine what people are thinking - but polls that have questions which are well designed and impartial and are administered to randomly selected individuals generally reflect the mood of the population that is represented by the random sample.)

But society is changing in ways that may make accurate polling more difficult.

The poll that I helped to design and carry out in college used door-to-door canvassing for the collection of our data.   Today most polls, and especially large polls such as those for state or national elections, are done by telephone - and telephone usage has become more complicated.   In the old days every household had a telephone that was connected to a telephone system by a wire - now often referred to as a landline - and communication occurred through that wire.  Today some homes still have a landline, but the number that do is dwindling.  Most of us use cellphones and our communications are bounced through the air by means of satellites out in space.

In the old days most people had their names and telephone numbers recorded in local telephone directories, and the local phone companies that published the local directories were all under the umbrella of one national phone company - AT&T - or "Ma Bell" as it was more commonly known.  A person in Spokane, Washington, could dial the operator and ask for the phone number of a person in Daytona Beach, Florida, and have it  in a minute or so.   Today, with several national providers of telephone service, it is much more difficult to come up with someone's telephone number - even for powerful national pollsters.

And if a pollster does come up with a good telephone number, that still doesn't mean the call will be answered.  In the past, if the phone rang, a person would answer it.  Today we have some clues as to who is calling - we can either see the number of the caller or get get an indication that the caller is "unknown," and make a decision from that on whether to answer it or not - or to even "block" that caller.

Contacting a list of random voters for polling purposes is far more difficult today than it has been in the past, and for that reason I suspect that the reliability of polling will suffer accordingly.  

The best polls have always been the ones that take place at the ballot boxes on Election Day.  If you want the world to know how you feel about issues and candidates, go to the polls and vote!