by Pa Rock
Citizen Journalist
It seemed like we had been hearing about the massive Russian troop and weaponry buildup along Unkraine's borders for months before the actual invasion of that sovereign nation began on February 24, 2022. With that enormous preparation for war, and with Russia's acknowledged status as a world superpower, a quick and brutal conquest of Ukraine seemed all but assured.
But a strange thing happened on Russia's quick march to rebuild its old Soviet empire. The world reacted in disgust and Ukraine valiantly resisted. All the Kremlin's war machinery and all the Kremlin's uniformed troops could not bring Ukraine back into the Soviet fold - at least not as quickly and as easily as Vladimir Putin and his "yes men" in the Politburo thought that it could be done.
Putin and his advisers had seriously miscalculated the resolve and determination of the Ukrainian people to remain free of the Russian yoke. The young nation was energized by its independence and the growing economy that was being fostered by capitalism. It was becoming westernized and the people, for the most part, had no desire to return to the more rigid and less affluent lifestyle that they had known during their decades under Russian control.
The leader of Ukraine, Volodymyr Zelensky, was himself young and vibrant, much like his nation's emerging lifestyle and economy. Zelensky, a former actor and comedian, was only forty-four when Russia loosed its assault on Ukraine, and instead of hiding in the capital, or fleeing the nation, Zelensky donned a uniform and headed out into the streets to join in the defense of his beloved Ukraine.
The people had a leader - a real one - and that leadership inspired a national fervor to push Russia out of Ukraine. It also represented a serious miscalculation in Putin's war calculus.
Ukraine's resilient attitude caused world opinion to look with favor and admiration upon the Ukrainian David as he fought off the Russian Goliath. It all had the feel of being on the right side of history.
That is not to say that the whole world stood in Ukraine's corner. Russia had is's supporters on the international stage, including some prominent conservation sources in the United States who had been caught up in Donald Trump's four years of knee-bending to Russia. However, most people - and most nations - recognized Ukraine as the victim and Russia as the aggressor, and that vision intensified dramatically as war photos and claims of war crimes and even genocide began emerging from the war zone.
But Putin's war calculus was flawed by more than his underestimation of Ukraine's resolve to resist invasion and the world's determination to stand up to Russia and support the independence of Ukraine and its people. Putin seems to have also miscalculated Russia's military capabilities.
Recent news out of the conflict zone indicates that Russia has lost over 15,000 troops so far, and there seems to be serious opposition to the war both within the Russian military as well as among the Russian citizenry. Large protest crowds of thousands of people are gathering regularly in the streets of Moscow and St. Petersburg, and some of the Russian oligarchs are beginning to make noises about replacing Putin. And while the Russian leader still looks to have a tight hold on the levers of power, that could shift in short order if those who control the wealth of the nation begin to feel that their privilege is at risk.
During the two months that Russia has been at war with Ukraine, not only has it lost 15,000 troops, it has also suffered staggering blows to its military machine. The battleship "Moskva," the flagship of the Russian Black Sea fleet, was sunk, and now there are news reports that ithe Great Russian Bear has lost more than five hundred tanks - over half of which were due to a design flaw that causes their ammo shells in the tank to catch fire and explode when the tank is hit even by indirect fire. More than 280 tanks have exploded so far through this design flaw, and each explosion usually kills the entire 3-man tank crew. Training a replacement tank crew normally takes at least twelve months, again imposing a slowdown on the Russian war effort. Estimates are that around another three hundred tanks have been damaged, abandoned, or captured.
Now there are reports that admirals with the Russian fleet are also showing hesitancy about moving close enough to Ukraine's Black Sea front to form a blockade because they fear the same fate that took the Moskva. There are also reports that some recent explosions at oil depots in Russia and close to the border with Ukraine are the result of Ukrainian military stealth airstrikes.
None of that is good news for Vlad Putin, the man who built up a huge military presence around Ukraine and seemed to convince himself and the world that the country was his for the taking. Russia would roll in and roll over Ukraine and then it would gather up the other former Soviet Socialist Republics and bring them home to Mother Russia.
It has not worked, and it will not work.
Putin's vision of he world is out-of-date, and so is his war calculus.
The world has moved on.
Long live Free Ukraine!
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