Testing: It's About Knowing the Odds

by Pa Rock
Citizen Journalist

The GOP and other right-wing extremist groups have been organizing (and funding) protest rallies in several states over the past couple of weeks with the aim of pressuring governors and state legislatures into re-opening their states' businesses, schools, and economies - but many governors have been resisting while citing the need for much more testing of the general population.    The reluctant governors are noting that young people in particular can be carriers of the virus while appearing to be completely asymptomatic.   In order to ascertain how far the virus has actually spread, a compressive testing program that includes wide swaths of asymptomatic individuals would need to be put in place.   Without more testing, they fear that a return to the old ways might prove to be premature and a second spike in active cases and fatalities would develop.

But Trump has resisted testing all along.   A more comprehensive testing approach would reveal more people who are carrying the virus, and Trump does not want to do anything which would acknowledge higher numbers.  His strategy is to reduce the numbers, minimize the bad press, and do victory laps until the election in November.

Donald Trump wants to massage our panic with snake oil and get everything back to looking and feeling like it used to, in the good old days before his administration ignored and then bungled the threat of the deadly coronavirus.  And while he vocally acknowledges that he has "no responsibility" whatsoever in the creation or upkeep of the monstrous medical mess, he certainly would not mind it if voters saw him as the person who resolved it and got America back to work.

Those insolent governors, however, are blocking his march to glory with their incessant demand for more testing.    The Attorney General of the United States is threatening to become involved if the governors continue to try and protect the health and well being of the citizens of their states.  But the escalating conflicts between the state capitals and Washington, DC, may be about to ease somewhat because the stimulus funding bill that passed Congress yesterday set aside $25 billion for additional testing.  Of course, money authorized by Congress and then run through the White House grinder does not always get to where it was intended to be spent.

Yesterday I spoke with a physician at a local clinic and asked about testing for the virus.  He said that his rural clinic was currently able to test anyone who is symptomatic.  I pressed and asked when wider testing would be available to check more of the asymptomatic population, and he responded, "Who knows?"  He did agree that more comprehensive testing - to include asymptomatic individuals - was going to be necessary to determine how far the virus has spread - and he added that currently, as a "rule of thumb," doctors estimate the total infected population of an area to be ten to fifty times the number of known positive cases.

As of today (and as far as I know) there are five confirmed positive cases of the virus in my rural county.  That is not overly concerning, but it would indicate that, by the doctor's "rule of thumb," that there are likely fifty to two-hundred and fifty actual cases in the county - and that is more concerning.

My state of Missouri had 5,941 positive cases as of yesterday - along with 220 deaths.   Using the "rule of thumb" to expand that to the number of positive cases likely to be present in the state at this time comes to a far more significant 59,410 to 297,050!   Missouri's Republican governor, Mike Parson, is currently making noises about "re-opening" the state's businesses on May 4th, a week from next Monday, a move that will likely be more popular with the Trump administration than it will be with be with Missourians - real people who may not be as anxious to risk their lives and the lives of their families for Trump's re-election effort.

Confirmed cases of coronavirus in the United States now top 800,000 with around 45,000 reported deaths.    If those 800,000 cases are extrapolated out using the doctor's "rule of thumb," there are likely between 8 million and 40 million positive cases of coronavirus in our country alone!

Is it any wonder that Trump is resisting efforts to increase testing and get a more accurate picture of the true extent of this monster pandemic?

Most people want to know the odds before they gamble.