Sending a Rocket to the Moon is Easier than Weather Prediction

(Editor's Note:  Good friend Ranger Bob took exception to yesterday's post regarding weather prediction and forwarded this informed response.  Bob has good information, as he always does, and I am posting his reply today with his permission.  I learned from it, and others may, too.   Pa Rock)

by Bob Randall

The public's understanding of weather forecasting is unreasonable.  You're right.  Weather prediction isn't an exact science.  I once heard a fellow comment with profound disgust that "We can send a rocket to the moon, but we can't accurately predict the weather."   Here's my take:  Weather forecasting is a prediction of mixing air, humidity, ocean patterns, etc.  Sending a rocket to the moon is easier.  We know the locations of the moon and the earth relative to each other.  We can see it and have been watching ti for millennia.   Modern science can mathematically predict with certainty where the moon will be in relation to the earth at any given moment.   We can apply the amount of force needed to propel a rocket to the moon.  It's not nearly as difficult as predicting the weather with the same accuracy.

We can't see the air, the humidity, or the ocean temperatures, we can only measure them.   With more instruments, we could measure them with more accuracy and make better predictions, but the number of instruments needed would be annoying in our daily lives as we had to zig-zag around weather stations while driving and mow around deflated weather balloons that landed in our yards.   In space travel to the moon, we control the outcome.  In weather prediction, we work with invisible moving tarrgets that we can't control.

In weather predictions, data is fed into models and numbers come out.  They do not necessarily give rain chances in nice, even percentage numbers.  If it says 57.3% chance of rain, Brandon Beck will round it off to 60% when he reports it.  We're used to hearing it in rounded-off numbers.   Alexa was trying to impress you (LOL), or more likely simply reported numbers as she dug them out from the cloud.

Additionally, the public hears a weather report and visualizes it as being for their house.  It's for a general area.   My sister used to complain that it didn't rain at her house. I pulled my hair when she said that.

I'm finished.