Let the Gerrymandering Begin!

 

by Pa Rock

Citizen Journalist

The US Census Bureau announced its apportionment numbers yesterday, or the stated vote totals for the 2020 census that will be used to set the number of seats that each state will have in the US House of Representatives for the next decade.  Seven states will lose one representative each, five states will gain one representative each, and one state will gain two representatives.  Overall the slide in population from the Rust Belt to the Sun Belt seems to be continuing, with a couple of slight detours, but the total makeup of Congress should not suffer a dramatic shift.

West Virginia was the biggest loser of any state in the nation with regard to population numbers.  It suffered an overall loss of 3.2% of its population between 2010 and 2020, and will lose one seat in Congress.  West Virginia currently has three US House members, all Republicans, so that loss will equate to a loss of one Republican seat in Congress no matter how the state's legislature manages to draw the new congressional district boundaries.

California will lose a seat in Congress for the first time in the state's history.  (Back in 1990 it gained seven seats!)   The state, which currently has 42 Democratic representatives and 11 Republican representatives, has a Democratic governor - who is facing a recall drive - and a Democratic legislature.  It is therefore not readily apparent which party will suffer the most damage from the loss of a district, but the raw political power still seems to reside with the Democrats.

Likewise, Illinois which lost a congressional seat, also has a Democratic majority in Congress (13-5) as well as a Democratic Governor and legislature, so that loss may not negatively impact the Democrats in Congress - and the same holds true for New York, another population loser that is also controlled by Democrats.

(The Census Bureau noted that New York was just 89 individuals short of retaining its congressional seat, demonstrating the importance of every single person participating in the census!)

The other states that will lose a representative are Ohio (which currently sends 12 Republicans and 4 Democrats to Congress), Pennsylvania (whose congressional delegation is evenly split at 9 members for each of the two major parties), and Michigan (whose delegation is also evenly split at 7 members per each party.  

(This marks the fifth census in a row that Michigan has lost a seat in Congress.  Congressional districts in Michigan are drawn by a non-politician redistricting committee.)

And the big winners were:

Oregon, which currently has four Democratic representatives in Congress and one Republican.  Oregon, with its Democratic governor and legislature might just finagle that new seat into the Democratic column.

Florida, currently with 16 Republican seats, 10 Democratic seats, and one vacancy.  Florida has a Republican governor and legislature along with a proud history of gerrymandering.  The new seat will be red.

Colorado has four Democratic and three Republican representatives, and it is also run by a Democratic governor and legislature.   Congressional district lines in Colorado are drawn by a non-politician redistricting committee.

Montana, one of this big, empty states, will finally go from one representative in Congress to two.  The current member from Montana is a Republican, as are the governor and legislature.

North Carolina, currently with five Democratic and eight Republican members of Congress, will gain one additional seat.  The state has a Democratic governor, a Republican legislature, and a long history of gerrymandering.   Some involvement from the courts is almost a foregone conclusion on this one.

And - Texas - which is the big winner with two additional seats in Congress!   Texas currently has 22 Republican members, 13 Democratic members, and one vacant seat in Congress.  Texas has a Republican governor, a Republican legislature, and is often aswirl in corruption.  Gerrymandering will rule the day in Texas and the new seats almost certain to be gains for the GOP, especially if the governor and legislature can come up with new and better ways to keep minorities away from the polls.  

So that's where it stands for the next Congress, with the odds being that the GOP might gain a slight advantage based on the new numbers, but it is an advantage that could be easily pushed aside if the leadership of the Democratic Party would focus on the future and let the next generation begin to bring their energy and enthusiasm into leadership roles.

But that's a whole different blog posting.