Thursday, August 30, 2018

Arizona Prepares to Step into the 21st Century

by Pa Rock
Former Sand Rat

Arizona joined the union as the 48th state on Valentine's Day in 1912, and, in the one-hundred-and-six intervening years, the Scorpion State has only had eleven United States Senators - all white males.  That show of patriarchal muscle will definitely be at an end next January when the new senator is seated to replace retiring Senator Jeff Flake.  The race to replace Flake has clarified into two major party candidates, both currently serving as members of Congress - and both female.

Democrat Kyrsten Sinema, a former college professor at Arizona State University, is unabashedly progressive in her politics, a stark contrast to Republican Martha McSally, a Trump-touting, former military officer and combat pilot.  Arizona has been a traditionally Republican state, but it has had occasional lapses in which it elected Democrats to statewide office - with former two-term governor Janet Napolitano as one example that leaps to mind.  The contest between Sinema and McSally promises to be a real horserace.

But there is an outside chance that the winner of that election will not be Arizona's first woman to serve in the United States Senate.  Between now and the time that either Sinema or McSally is seated in the Senate, Governor Doug Ducey will appoint a replacement to Senator John McCain who passed away last weekend.   Ducey could conceivably bust the gender barrier and select a woman to take McCain's place - thus relegating Sinema or McSally to becoming the Arizona's second female senator.

Ducey, who is facing his own election challenge on the November ballot, has said that he will announce his appointment to replace McCain after the late senator's funeral this weekend.  The state's constitution requires that he choose someone from McCain's own party - a Republican - but other than that one limitation Governor Ducey is pretty much free to select whomever he pleases - except, of course, for the fact that if Arizonans are not happy with his selection they can almost immediately register their displeasure when they begin casting mail-in ballots for governor in mid-October.  Ducey is being challenged by David Garcia, a university professor who is a combat veteran (marksman) and an educational expert - and that race, like the one for the U.S. Senate, could go either way.

The governor has two obvious female choices to replace John McCain in the United States Senate.  Former Arizona state senator, Kelli Ward, ran against McCain in the Republican primary in 2016 and lost decisively.  This year she ran in the Republican primary to replace Senator Jeff Flake, and lost that race as well.  Ward earned a bit of well-deserved public scorn last week when she opined that John McCain's announcement that he was ceasing treatment for his brain cancer was some sort of sabotage against her campaign.

The other obvious choice to replace McCain would be his widow, Cindy.  Cindy Lou Hensley McCain is an heiress to a major Arizona beverage distributing company and is well-known in her own right.  It has been fairly commonplace for widows to succeed their husbands in the Senate, so that move could be seen as somewhat predictable.

The odds of Ducey appointing a controversy-inducing, two-time loser like Kelli Ward just before he faces the voters would seem to be slim, and while appointing Cindy McCain might resonate well with his Arizona constituents, it would not pass muster with the McCain-Hater-In-Chief, Donald Trump - and a pissed-off Donald Trump could also wreck Ducey's hopes of reelection.

Best guess:  either Kyrsten Sinema or Martha McSally will be the first female United States Senator from Arizona - and his former Arizonan's money is on Sinema.

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