Prediction Markets as Polls

by Pa Rock

Citizen Journalist

(Disclaimer:  Pa Rock, the wretched old typist who puts out this daily blog, has no involvement in the crypto or prediction market industries whatsoever.   He is not an investor in any prediction market company, nor has he ever placed a "bet" on one of their sites.  Today's posting is based solely on information that is readily available over the internet.)

Background:   Prediction markets, gambling operations where people place bets on the likelihood of certain things happening in the future, are a fairly new way for people of average means to pass their modest wealth on to the world's oligarchs.  Donald Trump says he is basically opposed to prediction markets.  According to Google's AI-powered search engine:

"President Trump has expressed disdain for prediction markets, saying that they make the world a 'casino' and that he is 'not happy with any of that stuff'.   While he finds them 'intriguing' and finds that 'smart people' use them, he conceptually dislikes them and is concerned about insider trading, despite his administration and family having ties to the industry." 

("Insider trading" is where individuals use privileged information that they acquire from work or from others involved in certain work or activities, and use that information to make money for themselves.  Several members of Congress and other prominent political figures have profited off of stock market investments or prediction market bets in manners which suggest they may have had special advance knowledge of certain events to which ordinary investors did not have access.)

But, despite his lukewarm stance toward the notion of prediction markets, Trump does not want them banned in the US because other countries have or use them, and even though he fears they bring a casino-like feel to the world, he does not want states regulating prediction markets as they do other gambling ventures.  Again though, those sentiments are likely connected to involvement in the prediction market industry by Trump associates and his family.

As to Trump family involvement with prediction markets, Google's AI notes that "Trump Media is planning to roll out its own prediction markets," and regarding the President's son, Don, Jr:

"Donald Trump, Jr, is actively involved as an investor and adviser in the prediction market industry, specifically with Polymarket and Kalshi.  He is a stakeholder and adviser for Polymarket, and acts as an adviser to Kalshi, both of which have seen significant betting volume on his father's political actions."

I have written a couple of times in the past about odds established by Las Vegas bookmakers in elections and how those serve as polls - of a sort - of public perception of various candidates.  The odds are established by the amount of money "bet" on each candidate.  I had in mind to do that again this election cycle, but then came up with the notion of using the odds of prediction markets instead, since they seem to have a strong focus on politics.  

I began this effort by looking at the two primary markets, Polymarket and Kalshi, but after learning that Polymarket uses crypto (something I know even less about than prediction markets), I decided to keep it as simple as possible and see what the Kalshi was saying about 2028's presidential race.  One thing to remember as to the reliability of polls and prediction markets, it's easier to lie to a pollster than it is to mislead in a prediction market where your own money is on the line and doing the talking.

(The odds on both sites change constantly due to the ease of on-line betting, but the most recent numbers (below) have been relatively stable over the past few days.  People can bet either for or against a certain prediction based on the odds at the time of the bet.  A candidate with a 20% chance of winning would have a smaller payout than betting on a candidate with only a 5% chance of winning - but if you bet against those candidates, the odds would be roughly reversed.

Here is what a few of your friends and neighbors - as well as many, many government insiders - are saying on Kalshi about the presidential race in 2028:

On the Democratic side:

1.  Gavin Newsom  (24%)

2.  Kamala Harris  (11%)

3.  Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez  (9.3%)

4.  Jon Ossoff  (8.4%)

5.  Rahm Emanuel. (6%)

6.  Pete Buttigieg  (5.4%)

7.  Josh Shapiro. (4.4%)

8.  Mark Kelly  (4%)

9.  Andy Beshear  (3.7%)

10 - 11.  J.B. Pritzker and Ro Khanna (tied at 3%)

The list stretches through 34 additional names on whom people have placed bets, including such notables as Jon Stuart, Mark Cuban, Jamie Dimon, and Lebron James.

On the Republican side:

1.  JD Vance  (38%)

2.  Marco Rubio  (24%)

3.  Tucker Carlson  (7.7%)

4.  Donald J. Trump, Jr. (5.9%)

5.  Ron DeSantis. (4.1%)

6.  Donald J. Trump  (3.5%)

7-8.  Glenn Younkin  and Thomas Massie (tied at 1.4%)

9.  Marjorie Taylor Greene  (1.3%)

10.  Ivanka Trump  (1%)

The list has 25 more including Lara Trump, Elon Musk, and Nicki Minaj.

And the odds as to who will ultimately be elected President  of the US in 2028:

Kalshi's current odds for which party will win the presidency in 2028 have the Democratic Party over the Republicans by 62% to 38%.   

Small wonder Donald Trump, Sr, does not like prediction markets.  Kalshi has him at Number 6 for his party's nomination (even behind his own son!), and has his party losing the White House by 24 points. That's some legacy, Donbo!